Models, code, and papers for "Jiyang Xie":
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to understand the influence of different parameters. Based on an Elman neural network (ENN), this paper investigates the impact of direct solar irradiance and wind speed on predicting the heat demand of a district heating network. Results show that including wind speed can generally result in a lower overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) (6.43%) than including direct solar irradiance (6.47%); while including direct solar irradiance can achieve a lower maximum absolute deviation (71.8%) than including wind speed (81.53%). In addition, even though including both wind speed and direct solar irradiance shows the best overall performance (MAPE=6.35%).
This paper investigates to identify the requirement and the development of machine learning-based mobile big data analysis through discussing the insights of challenges in the mobile big data (MBD). Furthermore, it reviews the state-of-the-art applications of data analysis in the area of MBD. Firstly, we introduce the development of MBD. Secondly, the frequently adopted methods of data analysis are reviewed. Three typical applications of MBD analysis, namely wireless channel modeling, human online and offline behavior analysis, and speech recognition in the internet of vehicles, are introduced respectively. Finally, we summarize the main challenges and future development directions of mobile big data analysis.
Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decompose the series into seasonal and trend components. Then, predicting the seasonal and trend components respectively, and combining their predictions together as the heat demand prediction is a possible way to predict heat demand. In this paper, STL-ENN-ARIMA (SEA), a combined model, was proposed based on the combination of the Elman neural network (ENN) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which are commonly applied to heat demand prediction. ENN and ARIMA are used to predict seasonal and trend components, respectively. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed SEA model has a promising performance.
A Bayesian approach termed BAyesian Least Squares Optimization with Nonnegative L1-norm constraint (BALSON) is proposed. The error distribution of data fitting is described by Gaussian likelihood. The parameter distribution is assumed to be a Dirichlet distribution. With the Bayes rule, searching for the optimal parameters is equivalent to finding the mode of the posterior distribution. In order to explicitly characterize the nonnegative L1-norm constraint of the parameters, we further approximate the true posterior distribution by a Dirichlet distribution. We estimate the statistics of the approximating Dirichlet posterior distribution by sampling methods. Four sampling methods have been introduced. With the estimated posterior distributions, the original parameters can be effectively reconstructed in polynomial fitting problems, and the BALSON framework is found to perform better than conventional methods.