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Meta Attentive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting
Aug 28, 2023
Traffic forecasting is a fundamental problem in intelligent transportation systems. Existing traffic predictors are limited by their expressive power to model the complex spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data, mainly due to the following limitations. Firstly, most approaches are primarily designed to model the local shared patterns, which makes them insufficient to capture the specific patterns associated with each node globally. Hence, they fail to learn each node's unique properties and diversified patterns. Secondly, most existing approaches struggle to accurately model both short- and long-term dependencies simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a novel traffic predictor, named Meta Attentive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (MAGCRN). MAGCRN utilizes a Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (GCRN) as a core module to model local dependencies and improves its operation with two novel modules: 1) a Node-Specific Meta Pattern Learning (NMPL) module to capture node-specific patterns globally and 2) a Node Attention Weight Generation Module (NAWG) module to capture short- and long-term dependencies by connecting the node-specific features with the ones learned initially at each time step during GCRN operation. Experiments on six real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that NMPL and NAWG together enable MAGCRN to outperform state-of-the-art baselines on both short- and long-term predictions.
Adaptive Modeling of Uncertainties for Traffic Forecasting
Mar 16, 2023
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as a dominant approach for developing traffic forecasting models. These models are typically trained to minimize error on averaged test cases and produce a single-point prediction, such as a scalar value for traffic speed or travel time. However, single-point predictions fail to account for prediction uncertainty that is critical for many transportation management scenarios, such as determining the best- or worst-case arrival time. We present QuanTraffic, a generic framework to enhance the capability of an arbitrary DNN model for uncertainty modeling. QuanTraffic requires little human involvement and does not change the base DNN architecture during deployment. Instead, it automatically learns a standard quantile function during the DNN model training to produce a prediction interval for the single-point prediction. The prediction interval defines a range where the true value of the traffic prediction is likely to fall. Furthermore, QuanTraffic develops an adaptive scheme that dynamically adjusts the prediction interval based on the location and prediction window of the test input. We evaluated QuanTraffic by applying it to five representative DNN models for traffic forecasting across seven public datasets. We then compared QuanTraffic against five uncertainty quantification methods. Compared to the baseline uncertainty modeling techniques, QuanTraffic with base DNN architectures delivers consistently better and more robust performance than the existing ones on the reported datasets.