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Add to EdgeDhagash Mehta
Towards Enhanced Local Explainability of Random Forests: a Proximity-Based Approach
Oct 19, 2023
We initiate a novel approach to explain the out of sample performance of random forest (RF) models by exploiting the fact that any RF can be formulated as an adaptive weighted K nearest-neighbors model. Specifically, we use the proximity between points in the feature space learned by the RF to re-write random forest predictions exactly as a weighted average of the target labels of training data points. This linearity facilitates a local notion of explainability of RF predictions that generates attributions for any model prediction across observations in the training set, and thereby complements established methods like SHAP, which instead generates attributions for a model prediction across dimensions of the feature space. We demonstrate this approach in the context of a bond pricing model trained on US corporate bond trades, and compare our approach to various existing approaches to model explainability.
Towards reducing hallucination in extracting information from financial reports using Large Language Models
Oct 16, 2023For a financial analyst, the question and answer (Q\&A) segment of the company financial report is a crucial piece of information for various analysis and investment decisions. However, extracting valuable insights from the Q\&A section has posed considerable challenges as the conventional methods such as detailed reading and note-taking lack scalability and are susceptible to human errors, and Optical Character Recognition (OCR) and similar techniques encounter difficulties in accurately processing unstructured transcript text, often missing subtle linguistic nuances that drive investor decisions. Here, we demonstrate the utilization of Large Language Models (LLMs) to efficiently and rapidly extract information from earnings report transcripts while ensuring high accuracy transforming the extraction process as well as reducing hallucination by combining retrieval-augmented generation technique as well as metadata. We evaluate the outcomes of various LLMs with and without using our proposed approach based on various objective metrics for evaluating Q\&A systems, and empirically demonstrate superiority of our method.
Quantifying Outlierness of Funds from their Categories using Supervised Similarity
Aug 14, 2023Mutual fund categorization has become a standard tool for the investment management industry and is extensively used by allocators for portfolio construction and manager selection, as well as by fund managers for peer analysis and competitive positioning. As a result, a (unintended) miscategorization or lack of precision can significantly impact allocation decisions and investment fund managers. Here, we aim to quantify the effect of miscategorization of funds utilizing a machine learning based approach. We formulate the problem of miscategorization of funds as a distance-based outlier detection problem, where the outliers are the data-points that are far from the rest of the data-points in the given feature space. We implement and employ a Random Forest (RF) based method of distance metric learning, and compute the so-called class-wise outlier measures for each data-point to identify outliers in the data. We test our implementation on various publicly available data sets, and then apply it to mutual fund data. We show that there is a strong relationship between the outlier measures of the funds and their future returns and discuss the implications of our findings.
Learning Mutual Fund Categorization using Natural Language Processing
Jul 11, 2022
Categorization of mutual funds or Exchange-Traded-funds (ETFs) have long served the financial analysts to perform peer analysis for various purposes starting from competitor analysis, to quantifying portfolio diversification. The categorization methodology usually relies on fund composition data in the structured format extracted from the Form N-1A. Here, we initiate a study to learn the categorization system directly from the unstructured data as depicted in the forms using natural language processing (NLP). Positing as a multi-class classification problem with the input data being only the investment strategy description as reported in the form and the target variable being the Lipper Global categories, and using various NLP models, we show that the categorization system can indeed be learned with high accuracy. We discuss implications and applications of our findings as well as limitations of existing pre-trained architectures in applying them to learn fund categorization.
Fund2Vec: Mutual Funds Similarity using Graph Learning
Jun 24, 2021
Identifying similar mutual funds with respect to the underlying portfolios has found many applications in financial services ranging from fund recommender systems, competitors analysis, portfolio analytics, marketing and sales, etc. The traditional methods are either qualitative, and hence prone to biases and often not reproducible, or, are known not to capture all the nuances (non-linearities) among the portfolios from the raw data. We propose a radically new approach to identify similar funds based on the weighted bipartite network representation of funds and their underlying assets data using a sophisticated machine learning method called Node2Vec which learns an embedded low-dimensional representation of the network. We call the embedding \emph{Fund2Vec}. Ours is the first ever study of the weighted bipartite network representation of the funds-assets network in its original form that identifies structural similarity among portfolios as opposed to merely portfolio overlaps.
Machine learning the real discriminant locus
Jun 24, 2020
Parameterized systems of polynomial equations arise in many applications in science and engineering with the real solutions describing, for example, equilibria of a dynamical system, linkages satisfying design constraints, and scene reconstruction in computer vision. Since different parameter values can have a different number of real solutions, the parameter space is decomposed into regions whose boundary forms the real discriminant locus. This article views locating the real discriminant locus as a supervised classification problem in machine learning where the goal is to determine classification boundaries over the parameter space, with the classes being the number of real solutions. For multidimensional parameter spaces, this article presents a novel sampling method which carefully samples the parameter space. At each sample point, homotopy continuation is used to obtain the number of real solutions to the corresponding polynomial system. Machine learning techniques including nearest neighbor and deep learning are used to efficiently approximate the real discriminant locus. One application of having learned the real discriminant locus is to develop a real homotopy method that only tracks the real solution paths unlike traditional methods which track all~complex~solution~paths. Examples show that the proposed approach can efficiently approximate complicated solution boundaries such as those arising from the equilibria of the Kuramoto model.
Machine Learning Fund Categorizations
May 29, 2020
Given the surge in popularity of mutual funds (including exchange-traded funds (ETFs)) as a diversified financial investment, a vast variety of mutual funds from various investment management firms and diversification strategies have become available in the market. Identifying similar mutual funds among such a wide landscape of mutual funds has become more important than ever because of many applications ranging from sales and marketing to portfolio replication, portfolio diversification and tax loss harvesting. The current best method is data-vendor provided categorization which usually relies on curation by human experts with the help of available data. In this work, we establish that an industry wide well-regarded categorization system is learnable using machine learning and largely reproducible, and in turn constructing a truly data-driven categorization. We discuss the intellectual challenges in learning this man-made system, our results and their implications.
Towards Robust Deep Neural Networks
Oct 27, 2018
We examine the relationship between the energy landscape of neural networks and their robustness to adversarial attacks. Combining energy landscape techniques developed in computational chemistry with tools drawn from formal methods, we produce empirical evidence that networks corresponding to lower-lying minima in the landscape tend to be more robust. The robustness measure used is the inverse of the sensitivity measure, which we define as the volume of an over-approximation of the reachable set of network outputs under all additive $l_{\infty}$ bounded perturbations on the input data. We present a novel loss function which contains a weighted sensitivity component in addition to the traditional task-oriented and regularization terms. In our experiments on standard machine learning and computer vision datasets (e.g., Iris and MNIST), we show that the proposed loss function leads to networks which reliably optimize the robustness measure as well as other related metrics of adversarial robustness without significant degradation in the classification error.
The loss surface of deep linear networks viewed through the algebraic geometry lens
Oct 17, 2018
By using the viewpoint of modern computational algebraic geometry, we explore properties of the optimization landscapes of the deep linear neural network models. After clarifying on the various definitions of "flat" minima, we show that the geometrically flat minima, which are merely artifacts of residual continuous symmetries of the deep linear networks, can be straightforwardly removed by a generalized $L_2$ regularization. Then, we establish upper bounds on the number of isolated stationary points of these networks with the help of algebraic geometry. Using these upper bounds and utilizing a numerical algebraic geometry method, we find all stationary points of modest depth and matrix size. We show that in the presence of the non-zero regularization, deep linear networks indeed possess local minima which are not the global minima. Our computational results clarify certain aspects of the loss surfaces of deep linear networks and provide novel insights.
The Loss Surface of XOR Artificial Neural Networks
Apr 06, 2018
Training an artificial neural network involves an optimization process over the landscape defined by the cost (loss) as a function of the network parameters. We explore these landscapes using optimisation tools developed for potential energy landscapes in molecular science. The number of local minima and transition states (saddle points of index one), as well as the ratio of transition states to minima, grow rapidly with the number of nodes in the network. There is also a strong dependence on the regularisation parameter, with the landscape becoming more convex (fewer minima) as the regularisation term increases. We demonstrate that in our formulation, stationary points for networks with $N_h$ hidden nodes, including the minimal network required to fit the XOR data, are also stationary points for networks with $N_{h} +1$ hidden nodes when all the weights involving the additional nodes are zero. Hence, smaller networks optimized to train the XOR data are embedded in the landscapes of larger networks. Our results clarify certain aspects of the classification and sensitivity (to perturbations in the input data) of minima and saddle points for this system, and may provide insight into dropout and network compression.
* 19 pages, 6 figures. Submitted to journal in Oct, 2017