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Fast-Slow Streamflow Model Using Mass-Conserving LSTM
Jul 13, 2021
Streamflow forecasting is key to effectively managing water resources and preparing for the occurrence of natural calamities being exacerbated by climate change. Here we use the concept of fast and slow flow components to create a new mass-conserving Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model. It uses hydrometeorological time series and catchment attributes to predict daily river discharges. Preliminary results evidence improvement in skills for different scores compared to the recent literature.
Geostatistical Learning: Challenges and Opportunities
Feb 17, 2021
Statistical learning theory provides the foundation to applied machine learning, and its various successful applications in computer vision, natural language processing and other scientific domains. The theory, however, does not take into account the unique challenges of performing statistical learning in geospatial settings. For instance, it is well known that model errors cannot be assumed to be independent and identically distributed in geospatial (a.k.a. regionalized) variables due to spatial correlation; and trends caused by geophysical processes lead to covariate shifts between the domain where the model was trained and the domain where it will be applied, which in turn harm the use of classical learning methodologies that rely on random samples of the data. In this work, we introduce the geostatistical (transfer) learning problem, and illustrate the challenges of learning from geospatial data by assessing widely-used methods for estimating generalization error of learning models, under covariate shift and spatial correlation. Experiments with synthetic Gaussian process data as well as with real data from geophysical surveys in New Zealand indicate that none of the methods are adequate for model selection in a geospatial context. We provide general guidelines regarding the choice of these methods in practice while new methods are being actively researched.
Comparison of computer systems and ranking criteria for automatic melanoma detection in dermoscopic images
Feb 05, 2018
Melanoma is the deadliest form of skin cancer. Computer systems can assist in melanoma detection, but are not widespread in clinical practice. In 2016, an open challenge in classification of dermoscopic images of skin lesions was announced. A training set of 900 images with corresponding class labels and semi-automatic/manual segmentation masks was released for the challenge. An independent test set of 379 images was used to rank the participants. This article demonstrates the impact of ranking criteria, segmentation method and classifier, and highlights the clinical perspective. We compare five different measures for diagnostic accuracy by analysing the resulting ranking of the computer systems in the challenge. Choice of performance measure had great impact on the ranking. Systems that were ranked among the top three for one measure, dropped to the bottom half when changing performance measure. Nevus Doctor, a computer system previously developed by the authors, was used to investigate the impact of segmentation and classifier. The unexpected small impact of automatic versus semi-automatic/manual segmentation suggests that improvements of the automatic segmentation method w.r.t. resemblance to semi-automatic/manual segmentation will not improve diagnostic accuracy substantially. A small set of similar classification algorithms are used to investigate the impact of classifier on the diagnostic accuracy. The variability in diagnostic accuracy for different classifier algorithms was larger than the variability for segmentation methods, and suggests a focus for future investigations. From a clinical perspective, the misclassification of a melanoma as benign has far greater cost than the misclassification of a benign lesion. For computer systems to have clinical impact, their performance should be ranked by a high-sensitivity measure.