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Efficient and Sharp Off-Policy Evaluation in Robust Markov Decision Processes
Mar 29, 2024
We study evaluating a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), given transition observations from the original MDP, whether under the same or different policy. This is an important problem when there is the possibility of a shift between historical and future environments, due to e.g. unmeasured confounding, distributional shift, or an adversarial environment. We propose a perturbation model that can modify transition kernel densities up to a given multiplicative factor or its reciprocal, which extends the classic marginal sensitivity model (MSM) for single time step decision making to infinite-horizon RL. We characterize the sharp bounds on policy value under this model, that is, the tightest possible bounds given by the transition observations from the original MDP, and we study the estimation of these bounds from such transition observations. We develop an estimator with several appealing guarantees: it is semiparametrically efficient, and remains so even when certain necessary nuisance functions such as worst-case Q-functions are estimated at slow nonparametric rates. It is also asymptotically normal, enabling easy statistical inference using Wald confidence intervals. In addition, when certain nuisances are estimated inconsistently we still estimate a valid, albeit possibly not sharp bounds on the policy value. We validate these properties in numeric simulations. The combination of accounting for environment shifts from train to test (robustness), being insensitive to nuisance-function estimation (orthogonality), and accounting for having only finite samples to learn from (inference) together leads to credible and reliable policy evaluation.
Hessian-Free Laplace in Bayesian Deep Learning
Mar 15, 2024
The Laplace approximation (LA) of the Bayesian posterior is a Gaussian distribution centered at the maximum a posteriori estimate. Its appeal in Bayesian deep learning stems from the ability to quantify uncertainty post-hoc (i.e., after standard network parameter optimization), the ease of sampling from the approximate posterior, and the analytic form of model evidence. However, an important computational bottleneck of LA is the necessary step of calculating and inverting the Hessian matrix of the log posterior. The Hessian may be approximated in a variety of ways, with quality varying with a number of factors including the network, dataset, and inference task. In this paper, we propose an alternative framework that sidesteps Hessian calculation and inversion. The Hessian-free Laplace (HFL) approximation uses curvature of both the log posterior and network prediction to estimate its variance. Only two point estimates are needed: the standard maximum a posteriori parameter and the optimal parameter under a loss regularized by the network prediction. We show that, under standard assumptions of LA in Bayesian deep learning, HFL targets the same variance as LA, and can be efficiently amortized in a pre-trained network. Experiments demonstrate comparable performance to that of exact and approximate Hessians, with excellent coverage for in-between uncertainty.
Switching the Loss Reduces the Cost in Batch Reinforcement Learning
Mar 12, 2024
We propose training fitted Q-iteration with log-loss (FQI-LOG) for batch reinforcement learning (RL). We show that the number of samples needed to learn a near-optimal policy with FQI-LOG scales with the accumulated cost of the optimal policy, which is zero in problems where acting optimally achieves the goal and incurs no cost. In doing so, we provide a general framework for proving $\textit{small-cost}$ bounds, i.e. bounds that scale with the optimal achievable cost, in batch RL. Moreover, we empirically verify that FQI-LOG uses fewer samples than FQI trained with squared loss on problems where the optimal policy reliably achieves the goal.
Risk-Sensitive RL with Optimized Certainty Equivalents via Reduction to Standard RL
Mar 10, 2024
We study Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RSRL) with the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk, which generalizes Conditional Value-at-risk (CVaR), entropic risk and Markowitz's mean-variance. Using an augmented Markov Decision Process (MDP), we propose two general meta-algorithms via reductions to standard RL: one based on optimistic algorithms and another based on policy optimization. Our optimistic meta-algorithm generalizes almost all prior RSRL theory with entropic risk or CVaR. Under discrete rewards, our optimistic theory also certifies the first RSRL regret bounds for MDPs with bounded coverability, e.g., exogenous block MDPs. Under discrete rewards, our policy optimization meta-algorithm enjoys both global convergence and local improvement guarantees in a novel metric that lower bounds the true OCE risk. Finally, we instantiate our framework with PPO, construct an MDP, and show that it learns the optimal risk-sensitive policy while prior algorithms provably fail.
Is Cosine-Similarity of Embeddings Really About Similarity?
Mar 08, 2024
Cosine-similarity is the cosine of the angle between two vectors, or equivalently the dot product between their normalizations. A popular application is to quantify semantic similarity between high-dimensional objects by applying cosine-similarity to a learned low-dimensional feature embedding. This can work better but sometimes also worse than the unnormalized dot-product between embedded vectors in practice. To gain insight into this empirical observation, we study embeddings derived from regularized linear models, where closed-form solutions facilitate analytical insights. We derive analytically how cosine-similarity can yield arbitrary and therefore meaningless `similarities.' For some linear models the similarities are not even unique, while for others they are implicitly controlled by the regularization. We discuss implications beyond linear models: a combination of different regularizations are employed when learning deep models; these have implicit and unintended effects when taking cosine-similarities of the resulting embeddings, rendering results opaque and possibly arbitrary. Based on these insights, we caution against blindly using cosine-similarity and outline alternatives.
* 9 pages
Applied Causal Inference Powered by ML and AI
Mar 04, 2024An introduction to the emerging fusion of machine learning and causal inference. The book presents ideas from classical structural equation models (SEMs) and their modern AI equivalent, directed acyclical graphs (DAGs) and structural causal models (SCMs), and covers Double/Debiased Machine Learning methods to do inference in such models using modern predictive tools.
Peeking with PEAK: Sequential, Nonparametric Composite Hypothesis Tests for Means of Multiple Data Streams
Feb 16, 2024We propose a novel nonparametric sequential test for composite hypotheses for means of multiple data streams. Our proposed method, \emph{peeking with expectation-based averaged capital} (PEAK), builds upon the testing-as-betting framework and provides a non-asymptotic $\alpha$-level test across any stopping time. PEAK is computationally tractable and efficiently rejects hypotheses that are incorrect across all potential distributions that satisfy our nonparametric assumption, enabling joint composite hypothesis testing on multiple streams of data. We numerically validate our theoretical findings under the best arm identification and threshold identification in the bandit setting, illustrating both the competitive performance and the computational efficiency of our method against state-of-the-art testing methods.
More Benefits of Being Distributional: Second-Order Bounds for Reinforcement Learning
Feb 11, 2024In this paper, we prove that Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL), which learns the return distribution, can obtain second-order bounds in both online and offline RL in general settings with function approximation. Second-order bounds are instance-dependent bounds that scale with the variance of return, which we prove are tighter than the previously known small-loss bounds of distributional RL. To the best of our knowledge, our results are the first second-order bounds for low-rank MDPs and for offline RL. When specializing to contextual bandits (one-step RL problem), we show that a distributional learning based optimism algorithm achieves a second-order worst-case regret bound, and a second-order gap dependent bound, simultaneously. We also empirically demonstrate the benefit of DistRL in contextual bandits on real-world datasets. We highlight that our analysis with DistRL is relatively simple, follows the general framework of optimism in the face of uncertainty and does not require weighted regression. Our results suggest that DistRL is a promising framework for obtaining second-order bounds in general RL settings, thus further reinforcing the benefits of DistRL.
Multi-Armed Bandits with Interference
Feb 02, 2024Experimentation with interference poses a significant challenge in contemporary online platforms. Prior research on experimentation with interference has concentrated on the final output of a policy. The cumulative performance, while equally crucial, is less well understood. To address this gap, we introduce the problem of {\em Multi-armed Bandits with Interference} (MABI), where the learner assigns an arm to each of $N$ experimental units over a time horizon of $T$ rounds. The reward of each unit in each round depends on the treatments of {\em all} units, where the influence of a unit decays in the spatial distance between units. Furthermore, we employ a general setup wherein the reward functions are chosen by an adversary and may vary arbitrarily across rounds and units. We first show that switchback policies achieve an optimal {\em expected} regret $\tilde O(\sqrt T)$ against the best fixed-arm policy. Nonetheless, the regret (as a random variable) for any switchback policy suffers a high variance, as it does not account for $N$. We propose a cluster randomization policy whose regret (i) is optimal in {\em expectation} and (ii) admits a high probability bound that vanishes in $N$.
Faster Rates for Switchback Experiments
Dec 25, 2023Switchback experimental design, wherein a single unit (e.g., a whole system) is exposed to a single random treatment for interspersed blocks of time, tackles both cross-unit and temporal interference. Hu and Wager (2022) recently proposed a treatment-effect estimator that truncates the beginnings of blocks and established a $T^{-1/3}$ rate for estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) in a Markov setting with rapid mixing. They claim this rate is optimal and suggest focusing instead on a different (and design-dependent) estimand so as to enjoy a faster rate. For the same design we propose an alternative estimator that uses the whole block and surprisingly show that it in fact achieves an estimation rate of $\sqrt{\log T/T}$ for the original design-independent GATE estimand under the same assumptions.