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Time Weaver: A Conditional Time Series Generation Model
Mar 05, 2024
Imagine generating a city's electricity demand pattern based on weather, the presence of an electric vehicle, and location, which could be used for capacity planning during a winter freeze. Such real-world time series are often enriched with paired heterogeneous contextual metadata (weather, location, etc.). Current approaches to time series generation often ignore this paired metadata, and its heterogeneity poses several practical challenges in adapting existing conditional generation approaches from the image, audio, and video domains to the time series domain. To address this gap, we introduce Time Weaver, a novel diffusion-based model that leverages the heterogeneous metadata in the form of categorical, continuous, and even time-variant variables to significantly improve time series generation. Additionally, we show that naive extensions of standard evaluation metrics from the image to the time series domain are insufficient. These metrics do not penalize conditional generation approaches for their poor specificity in reproducing the metadata-specific features in the generated time series. Thus, we innovate a novel evaluation metric that accurately captures the specificity of conditional generation and the realism of the generated time series. We show that Time Weaver outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), by up to 27% in downstream classification tasks on real-world energy, medical, air quality, and traffic data sets.
Data Games: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Swarm Robotic Data Collection
Mar 07, 2023
Fleets of networked autonomous vehicles (AVs) collect terabytes of sensory data, which is often transmitted to central servers (the ''cloud'') for training machine learning (ML) models. Ideally, these fleets should upload all their data, especially from rare operating contexts, in order to train robust ML models. However, this is infeasible due to prohibitive network bandwidth and data labeling costs. Instead, we propose a cooperative data sampling strategy where geo-distributed AVs collaborate to collect a diverse ML training dataset in the cloud. Since the AVs have a shared objective but minimal information about each other's local data distribution and perception model, we can naturally cast cooperative data collection as an $N$-player mathematical game. We show that our cooperative sampling strategy uses minimal information to converge to a centralized oracle policy with complete information about all AVs. Moreover, we theoretically characterize the performance benefits of our game-theoretic strategy compared to greedy sampling. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate that our method outperforms standard benchmarks by up to $21.9\%$ on 4 perception datasets, including for autonomous driving in adverse weather conditions. Crucially, our experimental results on real-world datasets closely align with our theoretical guarantees.