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Provenance-Based Assessment of Plans in Context
Nov 03, 2020
Many real-world planning domains involve diverse information sources, external entities, and variable-reliability agents, all of which may impact the confidence, risk, and sensitivity of plans. Humans reviewing a plan may lack context about these factors; however, this information is available during the domain generation, which means it can also be interwoven into the planner and its resulting plans. This paper presents a provenance-based approach to explaining automated plans. Our approach (1) extends the SHOP3 HTN planner to generate dependency information, (2) transforms the dependency information into an established PROV-O representation, and (3) uses graph propagation and TMS-inspired algorithms to support dynamic and counter-factual assessment of information flow, confidence, and support. We qualified our approach's explanatory scope with respect to explanation targets from the automated planning literature and the information analysis literature, and we demonstrate its ability to assess a plan's pertinence, sensitivity, risk, assumption support, diversity, and relative confidence.
* 9 pages, 7 figures, including in Proceedings of the 2020 ICAPS Workshop on Explainable AI Planning (XAIP)
Plan Recognition in Stories and in Life
Mar 27, 2013
Plan recognition does not work the same way in stories and in "real life" (people tend to jump to conclusions more in stories). We present a theory of this, for the particular case of how objects in stories (or in life) influence plan recognition decisions. We provide a Bayesian network formalization of a simple first-order theory of plans, and show how a particular network parameter seems to govern the difference between "life-like" and "story-like" response. We then show why this parameter would be influenced (in the desired way) by a model of speaker (or author) topic selection which assumes that facts in stories are typically "relevant".
Dynamic Construction of Belief Networks
Mar 27, 2013
We describe a method for incrementally constructing belief networks. We have developed a network-construction language similar to a forward-chaining language using data dependencies, but with additional features for specifying distributions. Using this language, we can define parameterized classes of probabilistic models. These parameterized models make it possible to apply probabilistic reasoning to problems for which it is impractical to have a single large static model.
Integrating Model Construction and Evaluation
Mar 13, 2013
To date, most probabilistic reasoning systems have relied on a fixed belief network constructed at design time. The network is used by an application program as a representation of (in)dependencies in the domain. Probabilistic inference algorithms operate over the network to answer queries. Recognizing the inflexibility of fixed models has led researchers to develop automated network construction procedures that use an expressive knowledge base to generate a network that can answer a query. Although more flexible than fixed model approaches, these construction procedures separate construction and evaluation into distinct phases. In this paper we develop an approach to combining incremental construction and evaluation of a partial probability model. The combined method holds promise for improved methods for control of model construction based on a trade-off between fidelity of results and cost of construction.
Epsilon-Safe Planning
Feb 27, 2013
We introduce an approach to high-level conditional planning we call epsilon-safe planning. This probabilistic approach commits us to planning to meet some specified goal with a probability of success of at least 1-epsilon for some user-supplied epsilon. We describe several algorithms for epsilon-safe planning based on conditional planners. The two conditional planners we discuss are Peot and Smith's nonlinear conditional planner, CNLP, and our own linear conditional planner, PLINTH. We present a straightforward extension to conditional planners for which computing the necessary probabilities is simple, employing a commonly-made but perhaps overly-strong independence assumption. We also discuss a second approach to epsilon-safe planning which relaxes this independence assumption, involving the incremental construction of a probability dependence model in conjunction with the construction of the plan graph.
A New Model of Plan Recognition
Jan 23, 2013
We present a new abductive, probabilistic theory of plan recognition. This model differs from previous plan recognition theories in being centered around a model of plan execution: most previous methods have been based on plans as formal objects or on rules describing the recognition process. We show that our new model accounts for phenomena omitted from most previous plan recognition theories: notably the cumulative effect of a sequence of observations of partially-ordered, interleaved plans and the effect of context on plan adoption. The model also supports inferences about the evolution of plan execution in situations where another agent intervenes in plan execution. This facility provides support for using plan recognition to build systems that will intelligently assist a user.