Vladislav Z. B. Tadic

Asymptotic Properties of Recursive Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Non-Linear State-Space Models

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Using stochastic gradient search and the optimal filter derivative, it is possible to perform recursive (i.e., online) maximum likelihood estimation in a non-linear state-space model. As the optimal filter and its derivative are analytically intractable for such a model, they need to be approximated numerically. In [Poyiadjis, Doucet and Singh, Biometrika 2018], a recursive maximum likelihood algorithm based on a particle approximation to the optimal filter derivative has been proposed and studied through numerical simulations. Here, this algorithm and its asymptotic behavior are analyzed theoretically. We show that the algorithm accurately estimates maxima to the underlying (average) log-likelihood when the number of particles is sufficiently large. We also derive (relatively) tight bounds on the estimation error. The obtained results hold under (relatively) mild conditions and cover several classes of non-linear state-space models met in practice.

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