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Augmenting Ground-Level PM2.5 Prediction via Kriging-Based Pseudo-Label Generation
Jan 16, 2024
Fusing abundant satellite data with sparse ground measurements constitutes a major challenge in climate modeling. To address this, we propose a strategy to augment the training dataset by introducing unlabeled satellite images paired with pseudo-labels generated through a spatial interpolation technique known as ordinary kriging, thereby making full use of the available satellite data resources. We show that the proposed data augmentation strategy helps enhance the performance of the state-of-the-art convolutional neural network-random forest (CNN-RF) model by a reasonable amount, resulting in a noteworthy improvement in spatial correlation and a reduction in prediction error.
Causal Mediation Analysis with Multi-dimensional and Indirectly Observed Mediators
Jun 13, 2023
Causal mediation analysis (CMA) is a powerful method to dissect the total effect of a treatment into direct and mediated effects within the potential outcome framework. This is important in many scientific applications to identify the underlying mechanisms of a treatment effect. However, in many scientific applications the mediator is unobserved, but there may exist related measurements. For example, we may want to identify how changes in brain activity or structure mediate an antidepressant's effect on behavior, but we may only have access to electrophysiological or imaging brain measurements. To date, most CMA methods assume that the mediator is one-dimensional and observable, which oversimplifies such real-world scenarios. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a CMA framework that can handle complex and indirectly observed mediators based on the identifiable variational autoencoder (iVAE) architecture. We prove that the true joint distribution over observed and latent variables is identifiable with the proposed method. Additionally, our framework captures a disentangled representation of the indirectly observed mediator and yields accurate estimation of the direct and mediated effects in synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments, providing evidence of its potential utility in real-world applications.
Domain Adaptation via Rebalanced Sub-domain Alignment
Feb 03, 2023
Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) is a technique used to transfer knowledge from a labeled source domain to a different but related unlabeled target domain. While many UDA methods have shown success in the past, they often assume that the source and target domains must have identical class label distributions, which can limit their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. To address this limitation, we propose a novel generalization bound that reweights source classification error by aligning source and target sub-domains. We prove that our proposed generalization bound is at least as strong as existing bounds under realistic assumptions, and we empirically show that it is much stronger on real-world data. We then propose an algorithm to minimize this novel generalization bound. We demonstrate by numerical experiments that this approach improves performance in shifted class distribution scenarios compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Estimating Causal Effects using a Multi-task Deep Ensemble
Jan 26, 2023
Over the past few decades, a number of methods have been proposed for causal effect estimation, yet few have been demonstrated to be effective in handling data with complex structures, such as images. To fill this gap, we propose a Causal Multi-task Deep Ensemble (CMDE) framework to learn both shared and group-specific information from the study population and prove its equivalence to a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with coregionalization kernel a priori. Compared to multi-task GP, CMDE efficiently handles high-dimensional and multi-modal covariates and provides pointwise uncertainty estimates of causal effects. We evaluate our method across various types of datasets and tasks and find that CMDE outperforms state-of-the-art methods on a majority of these tasks.
Incorporating Prior Knowledge into Neural Networks through an Implicit Composite Kernel
May 17, 2022
It is challenging to guide neural network (NN) learning with prior knowledge. In contrast, many known properties, such as spatial smoothness or seasonality, are straightforward to model by choosing an appropriate kernel in a Gaussian process (GP). Many deep learning applications could be enhanced by modeling such known properties. For example, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are frequently used in remote sensing, which is subject to strong seasonal effects. We propose to blend the strengths of deep learning and the clear modeling capabilities of GPs by using a composite kernel that combines a kernel implicitly defined by a neural network with a second kernel function chosen to model known properties (e.g., seasonality). Then, we approximate the resultant GP by combining a deep network and an efficient mapping based on the Nystrom approximation, which we call Implicit Composite Kernel (ICK). ICK is flexible and can be used to include prior information in neural networks in many applications. We demonstrate the strength of our framework by showing its superior performance and flexibility on both synthetic and real-world data sets. The code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ICK_NNGP-17C5/.