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The curious case of the test set AUROC
Dec 19, 2023
Whilst the size and complexity of ML models have rapidly and significantly increased over the past decade, the methods for assessing their performance have not kept pace. In particular, among the many potential performance metrics, the ML community stubbornly continues to use (a) the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for a validation and test cohort (distinct from training data) or (b) the sensitivity and specificity for the test data at an optimal threshold determined from the validation ROC. However, we argue that considering scores derived from the test ROC curve alone gives only a narrow insight into how a model performs and its ability to generalise.
Recent Methodological Advances in Federated Learning for Healthcare
Oct 04, 2023
For healthcare datasets, it is often not possible to combine data samples from multiple sites due to ethical, privacy or logistical concerns. Federated learning allows for the utilisation of powerful machine learning algorithms without requiring the pooling of data. Healthcare data has many simultaneous challenges which require new methodologies to address, such as highly-siloed data, class imbalance, missing data, distribution shifts and non-standardised variables. Federated learning adds significant methodological complexity to conventional centralised machine learning, requiring distributed optimisation, communication between nodes, aggregation of models and redistribution of models. In this systematic review, we consider all papers on Scopus that were published between January 2015 and February 2023 and which describe new federated learning methodologies for addressing challenges with healthcare data. We performed a detailed review of the 89 papers which fulfilled these criteria. Significant systemic issues were identified throughout the literature which compromise the methodologies in many of the papers reviewed. We give detailed recommendations to help improve the quality of the methodology development for federated learning in healthcare.
REFORMS: Reporting Standards for Machine Learning Based Science
Aug 15, 2023
Machine learning (ML) methods are proliferating in scientific research. However, the adoption of these methods has been accompanied by failures of validity, reproducibility, and generalizability. These failures can hinder scientific progress, lead to false consensus around invalid claims, and undermine the credibility of ML-based science. ML methods are often applied and fail in similar ways across disciplines. Motivated by this observation, our goal is to provide clear reporting standards for ML-based science. Drawing from an extensive review of past literature, we present the REFORMS checklist ($\textbf{Re}$porting Standards $\textbf{For}$ $\textbf{M}$achine Learning Based $\textbf{S}$cience). It consists of 32 questions and a paired set of guidelines. REFORMS was developed based on a consensus of 19 researchers across computer science, data science, mathematics, social sciences, and biomedical sciences. REFORMS can serve as a resource for researchers when designing and implementing a study, for referees when reviewing papers, and for journals when enforcing standards for transparency and reproducibility.
Reinterpreting survival analysis in the universal approximator age
Jul 25, 2023
Survival analysis is an integral part of the statistical toolbox. However, while most domains of classical statistics have embraced deep learning, survival analysis only recently gained some minor attention from the deep learning community. This recent development is likely in part motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic. We aim to provide the tools needed to fully harness the potential of survival analysis in deep learning. On the one hand, we discuss how survival analysis connects to classification and regression. On the other hand, we provide technical tools. We provide a new loss function, evaluation metrics, and the first universal approximating network that provably produces survival curves without numeric integration. We show that the loss function and model outperform other approaches using a large numerical study.
Dis-AE: Multi-domain & Multi-task Generalisation on Real-World Clinical Data
Jun 15, 2023
Clinical data is often affected by clinically irrelevant factors such as discrepancies between measurement devices or differing processing methods between sites. In the field of machine learning (ML), these factors are known as domains and the distribution differences they cause in the data are known as domain shifts. ML models trained using data from one domain often perform poorly when applied to data from another domain, potentially leading to wrong predictions. As such, developing machine learning models that can generalise well across multiple domains is a challenging yet essential task in the successful application of ML in clinical practice. In this paper, we propose a novel disentangled autoencoder (Dis-AE) neural network architecture that can learn domain-invariant data representations for multi-label classification of medical measurements even when the data is influenced by multiple interacting domain shifts at once. The model utilises adversarial training to produce data representations from which the domain can no longer be determined. We evaluate the model's domain generalisation capabilities on synthetic datasets and full blood count (FBC) data from blood donors as well as primary and secondary care patients, showing that Dis-AE improves model generalisation on multiple domains simultaneously while preserving clinically relevant information.
Estimating defection in subscription-type markets: empirical analysis from the scholarly publishing industry
Nov 18, 2022
We present the first empirical study on customer churn prediction in the scholarly publishing industry. The study examines our proposed method for prediction on a customer subscription data over a period of 6.5 years, which was provided by a major academic publisher. We explore the subscription-type market within the context of customer defection and modelling, and provide analysis of the business model of such markets, and how these characterise the academic publishing business. The proposed method for prediction attempts to provide inference of customer's likelihood of defection on the basis of their re-sampled use of provider resources -in this context, the volume and frequency of content downloads. We show that this approach can be both accurate as well as uniquely useful in the business-to-business context, with which the scholarly publishing business model shares similarities. The main findings of this work suggest that whilst all predictive models examined, especially ensemble methods of machine learning, achieve substantially accurate prediction of churn, nearly a year ahead, this can be furthermore achieved even when the specific behavioural attributes that can be associated to each customer probability to churn are overlooked. Allowing as such highly accurate inference of churn from minimal possible data. We show that modelling churn on the basis of re-sampling customers' use of resources over subscription time is a better (simplified) approach than when considering the high granularity that can often characterise consumption behaviour.
Classification of datasets with imputed missing values: does imputation quality matter?
Jun 16, 2022
Classifying samples in incomplete datasets is a common aim for machine learning practitioners, but is non-trivial. Missing data is found in most real-world datasets and these missing values are typically imputed using established methods, followed by classification of the now complete, imputed, samples. The focus of the machine learning researcher is then to optimise the downstream classification performance. In this study, we highlight that it is imperative to consider the quality of the imputation. We demonstrate how the commonly used measures for assessing quality are flawed and propose a new class of discrepancy scores which focus on how well the method recreates the overall distribution of the data. To conclude, we highlight the compromised interpretability of classifier models trained using poorly imputed data.
Data Harmonisation for Information Fusion in Digital Healthcare: A State-of-the-Art Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis and Future Research Directions
Jan 17, 2022
Removing the bias and variance of multicentre data has always been a challenge in large scale digital healthcare studies, which requires the ability to integrate clinical features extracted from data acquired by different scanners and protocols to improve stability and robustness. Previous studies have described various computational approaches to fuse single modality multicentre datasets. However, these surveys rarely focused on evaluation metrics and lacked a checklist for computational data harmonisation studies. In this systematic review, we summarise the computational data harmonisation approaches for multi-modality data in the digital healthcare field, including harmonisation strategies and evaluation metrics based on different theories. In addition, a comprehensive checklist that summarises common practices for data harmonisation studies is proposed to guide researchers to report their research findings more effectively. Last but not least, flowcharts presenting possible ways for methodology and metric selection are proposed and the limitations of different methods have been surveyed for future research.
Advancing COVID-19 Diagnosis with Privacy-Preserving Collaboration in Artificial Intelligence
Nov 18, 2021
Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a promising substitution for streamlining COVID-19 diagnoses. However, concerns surrounding security and trustworthiness impede the collection of large-scale representative medical data, posing a considerable challenge for training a well-generalised model in clinical practices. To address this, we launch the Unified CT-COVID AI Diagnostic Initiative (UCADI), where the AI model can be distributedly trained and independently executed at each host institution under a federated learning framework (FL) without data sharing. Here we show that our FL model outperformed all the local models by a large yield (test sensitivity /specificity in China: 0.973/0.951, in the UK: 0.730/0.942), achieving comparable performance with a panel of professional radiologists. We further evaluated the model on the hold-out (collected from another two hospitals leaving out the FL) and heterogeneous (acquired with contrast materials) data, provided visual explanations for decisions made by the model, and analysed the trade-offs between the model performance and the communication costs in the federated training process. Our study is based on 9,573 chest computed tomography scans (CTs) from 3,336 patients collected from 23 hospitals located in China and the UK. Collectively, our work advanced the prospects of utilising federated learning for privacy-preserving AI in digital health.
Machine learning for COVID-19 detection and prognostication using chest radiographs and CT scans: a systematic methodological review
Sep 01, 2020
Background: Machine learning methods offer great potential for fast and accurate detection and prognostication of COVID-19 from standard-of-care chest radiographs (CXR) and computed tomography (CT) images. In this systematic review we critically evaluate the machine learning methodologies employed in the rapidly growing literature. Methods: In this systematic review we reviewed EMBASE via OVID, MEDLINE via PubMed, bioRxiv, medRxiv and arXiv for published papers and preprints uploaded from Jan 1, 2020 to June 24, 2020. Studies which consider machine learning models for the diagnosis or prognosis of COVID-19 from CXR or CT images were included. A methodology quality review of each paper was performed against established benchmarks to ensure the review focusses only on high-quality reproducible papers. This study is registered with PROSPERO [CRD42020188887]. Interpretation: Our review finds that none of the developed models discussed are of potential clinical use due to methodological flaws and underlying biases. This is a major weakness, given the urgency with which validated COVID-19 models are needed. Typically, we find that the documentation of a model's development is not sufficient to make the results reproducible and therefore of 168 candidate papers only 29 are deemed to be reproducible and subsequently considered in this review. We therefore encourage authors to use established machine learning checklists to ensure sufficient documentation is made available, and to follow the PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool) framework to determine the underlying biases in their model development process and to mitigate these where possible. This is key to safe clinical implementation which is urgently needed.